Abrupt Climate Change
Other online resources
The past climate change heats up PNAS 2000 research paper
Steven M. Stanley
Research has provided a shocking new assessment of the speed with which major climate changes can sweep across our planet.
The most precise evidence of rapid climate change comes from cores extracted from mountain glaciers and from the larger ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Annual layers in the glacial ice provide the chronology and key data on snowfall, temperature, influx of dust, and trace gases from the ancient atmosphere trapped in air bubbles.
There is ominous evidence that, during the past few thousand years, Earth's climate has been anomalously tranquil compared to its behavior during the preceding hundred thousand years.
Ice-core evidence of abrupt climate changes
Richard B. Alley
Ice-core records show that climate changes in the past have been large, rapid, and synchronous over broad areas extending into low latitudes, with less variability over historical times. These ice-core records come from high mountain glaciers and the polar regions, including small ice caps and the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.
As the world slid into and out of the last ice age, the general cooling and warming trends were punctuated by abrupt changes. Climate shifts up to half as large as the entire difference between ice age and modern conditions occurred over hemispheric or broader regions in mere years to decades. Such abrupt changes have been absent during the few key millennia when agriculture and industry have arisen.
The IPCC 2014 assessment defined abrupt climate change as a arge-scale change in the climate system that takes place over a few decades or less, persists (or is anticipated to persist) for at least a few decades, and causes substantial disruptions in human and natural systems.
Abrupt change tends to ocurr by a triggered tipping point.
Note this is abrupt climate system change. We have several examples of abrupt climate system change today that fit the definition, but are not recognized as abrupt.
We must know if any aspect of global climate change (from drivers to changes) is abrupt in terms of the long term data of that goes back 1000s and 100,000s years. Abrupt change cannot be determined by the records we generally see of changes since about 1980. Today's abrupt changes show dramatically over a 10,000 year period, which is the Holocene (means the recent) period and most significantly the climate that led to the age of agriculture. The temperature spike now up to 1.1C (2016) is abrupt.
The atmospheric increases of all three main greenhouses are clearly abrupt. In particular atmospheric CO2 is acclerating faster than ever (2017) There is no question that today's abrupt atmospheric greenhouse gas levels have led to a dramatic obvious sustained abrupt accelerating radiative forcing (heating) of the biosphere (see: dramatic graphs from the 2007 IPCC asessment). This is a most policy relevant definition of abrupt climate /system change.
The oceans are the ultimate determinant of climate. Ocean heating is clearly abrupt (2017 research finds it the higest in the past 100 million years. Ocean acidifcation is abrupt. Arctic warming is clearly abrupt and so is northern hemisphere warming, but these are not recognized as such. There is clearly an abrupt cooling of the North Atlantic, due to Greenland melt water.
Ocean heating and acidification are abrupt and both still accelerating.
Abrupt Arctic change The Arctic is now heating up 3 x the global average, which is abrupt and causing adverse abrupt Arctic changes, making Arctic climate change abrupt by any definition.
The real question is do today's record high atmospheric GHGs have the world committed (locked in) to actual abrupt catastrophic impacts to the planet. There is evidence from amplifying feedback science that this is the case.
The most recent and dramatic example is the Younger Dryas 13,000 years ago, of abrupt cooling terminated by an abrupt warming of 10C in a only decade or two! The rapid warming is attributed to methane and CO2 from wetlands and thawing permafrost.
The IPCC AR5 : a large-scale change in the climate system that takes place over a few decades or less, persists (or is anticipated to persist) for at least a few decades, and causes substantial disruptions in human and natural systems. There is information on potential consequences of some abrupt changes
The planetary catastrophic risk of abrupt climate change has been recognized for many. In 2002 the us National Academy published Abrupt Climate Changes: Inevitable Surprises
- Examples of components susceptible to such abrupt change are the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC),
- clathrate methane release,
- tropical and boreal forest dieback,
- disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean,
- long-term drought and
- monsoonal circulation
A study of Earth’s climate history suggests the inevitability of “tipping points”— thresholds beyond which major and rapid changes occur when crossed—that lead to abrupt changes in the climate system. The history of climate on the planet—as read in archives such as tree rings, ocean sediments, and ice cores—is punctuated with large changes that occurred rapidly, over the course of decades to as little as a few years. There are many potential tipping points in nature, as described in this report, and many more that we humans create in our own systems. The current rate of carbon emissions is changing the climate system at an accelerating pace, making the
chances of crossing tipping points all the more likely.
The question is now whether the surprises can be anticipated, and the element of surprise reduced. That issue is addressed in this report.
The abrupt climate changes and abrupt climate impacts discussed here present substantial risks to society and nature. The ability to anticipate what would otherwise be “surprises” in the climate system requires careful monitoring of climate conditions, improved models for projecting changes, and the interpretation and synthesis of scientific data using novel analysis techniques. In light of the importance of actionable information about the occurrence and impacts of abrupt changes, it is the Committee’s judgment that action is urgently needed to improve society’s ability to anticipate abrupt climate changes and impacts.
To address these needs the Committee recommends development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System (ACEWS). Surprises in the climate system are inevitable: an early warning system could allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. With adequate scientific monitoring and study of these potential changes to the climate system, the probability that society can anticipate future abrupt climate changes and impacts will be substantially increased.
12 Oct 20015 Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models. 'Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°'
The US under the Department of Energy has a special research project called the Investigation of the Magnitudes and Probabilities of Abrupt Climate TransitionS (IMPACTS) Project. It addresses four abrupt situations.
- Dynamics of ice shelf — ocean interaction and marine ice sheet instability;
- Boreal/Arctic-climate positive feedbacks and ACC;
- Rapid destabilization of methane hydrates in Arctic Ocean sediments;
- Mega droughts in North America, including the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.
It is quite a contradiction to expect unpredicted abrupt change to be somehow predictable, and even if we could predict an abrupt even by the very nature of abrupt climate change, there is nothing we could do about it.
The 2013 assessment has concluded that the threat from abrupt climate events this century is less than had previously been feared, but this relies on computer models and climate models inherently do not capture sudden non linear change.
Some abrupt changes that have been widely discussed in the literature because they were previously considered to be potential threats with poorly known probability. More recent research findings have shown that they may be less likely to occur within this century than previously considered possible. These include disruption to the Atlantic
Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and potential abrupt changes of high-latitude methane sources (permafrost soil carbon and ocean methane hydrates). Although the Committee judges the likelihood of an abrupt change within this century to be low for these processes, should they occur even next century or beyond, there would likely be severe impacts. Furthermore, gradual changes associated with these processes can still lead to
consequential changes. Thus, they merit further study.
24 April 2018 Collapse of the Atlantic Ocean heat transport might lead to hot European summers (& colder winters).
11 April 2018
Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years (1600 yr record low, is a tipping risk)
11 April 2018 Stronger evidence for a weaker Atlantic overturning, Explanation M. Mann
14 Mar 2018 Increased risk of a shutdown of ocean convection posed by warm North Atlantic summers
26 Oct 2017 Current climate change unparalleled over the last 100 million years?
19 June 2017 A new study shows: Gradual changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration can induce abrupt climate changes
15 Feb 2017 Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models G.Sgubi. Tipping risk much greater by 2100
12 Oct 2015 Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models
Dec 2014 Two massive, rapid releases of carbon during the onset of the Palaeocene–Eocene thermal maximum - most likely CH4 hydrate.
Reducing abrupt climate change risk ..
Mario Molina 2009.
Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above
the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system
into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable
consequences. This would mean that the climate system is
close to entering if not already within the zone of ‘‘dangerous
anthropogenic interference’’ (DAI).
CLIMATE SYSTEM EMERGENCY INSTITUTE
The Health and Human Rights Approach to Greenhouse Gas Pollution