Commitment Images
to increased future global warming
to increased future global warming
Sources of total committed global warming
A. Policy commitment
(in order of precedence determining emissions)
1. Economic policy
2. Energy policy
3. Climate change policy
B. Climate science commitment
(These will all act together)
o Time taken to stabilize atmospheric GHGs
o Ocean & heat lag + CO2 long life - equilibrium
o Unmasking of aerosol cooling
o Loss of snow and ice albedo cooling
o GHG feedback loops in response to global warming
A. Policy commitment
(in order of precedence determining emissions)
1. Economic policy
2. Energy policy
3. Climate change policy
B. Climate science commitment
(These will all act together)
o Time taken to stabilize atmospheric GHGs
o Ocean & heat lag + CO2 long life - equilibrium
o Unmasking of aerosol cooling
o Loss of snow and ice albedo cooling
o GHG feedback loops in response to global warming
CLIMATE EMERGENCY INSTITUTE
The health and human rights approach to climate change
The health and human rights approach to climate change
The only projection of impacts accounting for commitment, from IEA
For CMIP6 and year 2019 radiative forcing, the chances
of crossing the 2.0 °C threshold are 52%
and crossing the 1.5 °C threshold 84%
(for full equilibrium warming).
(for full equilibrium warming).
2022 atmospheric GHGs
(CO2 419.5ppm, CO2eq. 508ppm)
commit to 1.5°C around 2030
and 2°C around 2050
(CO2 419.5ppm, CO2eq. 508ppm)
commit to 1.5°C around 2030
and 2°C around 2050