Commitment Images
to increased future global warming 
Sources of total committed                   global warming

A. Policy commitment
(in order of ​precedence determining emissions)
1. Economic policy
2. Energy policy
3. Climate change policy​​​​​

B. Climate science commitment
(These will all act together) ​
o Time taken to stabilize atmospheric GHGs​​​
o Ocean & heat lag + CO2 long life - equilibrium 
o ​Unmasking of aerosol cooling​​​​ 
o Loss of snow and ice albedo cooling 
​​o GHG feedback loops in response to global warming ​​​​

​ The health and human rights approach to climate change
The only projection of impacts accounting for commitment, from IEA
For CMIP6 and year 2019 radiative forcing, the chances
of crossing the 2.0 °C threshold are 52%
and crossing the 1.5 °C threshold  84%
(for full equilibrium warming)​.

2022 atmospheric GHGs
​(CO2 419.5ppm, CO2eq. 508ppm)
commit to 1.5°C around 2030
​and 2°C around 2050