Our letter to the Geneva ADP Feb 2015
A majority of UN countries want what is the 2014 position of the Climate Action Network International, which quite rightly by the science is a global decline in emissions from 2015 and zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The Lima UN conference result ironically called The Lima Call to Action ruled that out.
The Lima conference was another failure,mainly because industrialized nation governments continued not
to honour their obligations and agreements made under the 1992 UN climate change convention.
Incredibly the IPCC AR5 best case scenario (RCP2.6) does not appear in the Lima outcome report.
Amongst many options elements of the CAN Int. position made it into the December 2015 Paris Negotiations.
From the preamble
19. Decides to continue the technical examination of opportunities with high mitigation
potential, including those with adaptation, health and sustainable development co-benefits,
in the period 2015–2020..
There are 3 options for limiting warming to 1.5C or 2.0C.
Within these 3 options are many (sub) options.
The best are as follows-
From Elements for a draft negotiating text
13.2 Parties’ efforts to take the form of:
a. A long-term zero emissions sustainable development pathway: Consistent with carbon neutrality / net zero emissions by 2050, or full decarbonization by 2050 and/or negative emissions by 2100
b. A global emission budget to be divided among all Parties according to the principles and provisions of the Convention, so as to limit global warming in this century to below 1.5 °C according to the IPCC assessment. The distribution of the global emission budget should be undertaken in accordance with historical
responsibilities, ecological footprint, capabilities, and state of development;
c. Stabilization of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at or below 350 ppm of CO2
equivalent in the context of equitable access to sustainable development;..
53.1 With regard to private and alternative finance:
b. A tax on oil exports from developing to developed countries to be established;
c. An international renewable energy and energy efficiency bond facility to be established;
d. The phasing down of high-carbon investments and fossil fuel subsidies.
Friends of the Earth Int. has possibly the most informative Lima report-
The world faces a planetary emergency: climate change, caused by a system that puts the pursuit of profit above the needs of people and the limits of nature. It is already devastating millions of people across the planet. 14 December 2014 No Justice in Lima Outcome
9 Jan 2015 Report from the Climate Change Conference in Peru
A delegation representing National Nurses United (NNU), the national umbrella
for the Minnesota Nurses Association.
We were there to address the issue of Climate Change and the impacts of
pollution generally from a public health perspective.
NNU’s official position is that the “Climate Emergency is a Health Emergency”:
The biggest and fastest solution is simple and readily applicable is to STOP ALL GREENHOUSE GAS POLLUTING SUBSIDIES
So in 2015 under the pressure of some fossil fuel promoting governments, the world does not have an agreement for an emergency response, nor a legally binding agreement on emissions specifics to replace Kyoto, nor a target limit for safe atmospheric greenhouse concentrations. The most powerful governments are still 'copping out' of the 1992 UN FCCC climate convention requirements. This is even though over 100 States have submitted for a legally binding agreement to limit warming to under 1.5C.
The 1992 UN FCCC
(climate change convention) clearly defines that States (called Parties) have agreed and are required to limit control their emissions so as to keep atmospheric GHGs at safe levels. Safety for atmospheric GHGs is defined as dangerous human caused interference with the climate system. The safe levels are defined as protecting global ecosystems, food security and capacity for sustainable development.
2014 -215 is the crucial period to getting greenhouse gas emissions on the decline instead of continuing to increase.
Though global climate change is universally recognized as 'one of the leading challenges of the age' (in fact the challenge of all time), today it is hard to find anything about climate change on the websites of governments and national political parties, including those with environmental policies. None have the Lima-Paris UN climate convention agenda posted.
The importance of 2014 -2015 for our future climate and out future, is not being recognized politically.
Though the Climate Action Network International released its excellent new 2014 climate change position in June 2014, it is not being publicized or promoted and is not on the websites of the international NGOs.
The 2014 CAN Int position is the first true planetary emergency response position.
Write a letter to your government leader. Make your contribution to the 2015-2020 global emissions reversal
for preventing climate chaos
If you have never ever written to your government – the time is NOW
Dear Prime Minister/President
CRUCIAL CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE INFORMATION IPCC AR5
Crucial 2014 UN 2015 Paris climate agreement
Dear Prime Minister/ President
I am extremely concerned that greenhouse gas emissions are still increasing as fast as ever instead of decreasing, and that consequently atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are still increasing as fast as ever- which is at an unprecedented rate in the long history of life.
I write to remind the government of the great many grave consequences of not reversing emissions within the next few years, as documented in the 2014 5th IPCC assessment, which would commit us and all future generations to a warming above 2.0C, which would planetary catastrophe.
I demand you at least support the IPCC AR5 2014 best case emissions scenario called RCP2.6
The IPCC AR5 says that removal of fossil fuel subsidies and putting a price on carbon pollution will lead to declining emissions. Please do these quickly.
Please promote the 350ppm CO2 target for atmospheric greenhouse gas levels (as required by the 1992 UNFCCC).
Please promote a global price on carbon pollution, also included in the IPCC AR5.
Year 2014 was the highest on record for the global average temperature increase. Northern hemisphere land temperature increase has not stalled and the Arctic continues to warm extremely rapidly.
According to the IPCC AR5 the cooling summer Arctic summer sea ice, which scientists call the air conditioner for the northern hemisphere, will melt away by mid century. At least 37% of permafrost will thaw releasing more CO2 and methane.
The IPCC haas projected severe impacts to billions of the most climate change vulnerable if warming is allowed to reach 2.0°C
The AR5 projects we will all be severely impacted by a warming of 2.0°C, which is made clear already from the increasing disastrous extreme weather events affecting all regions.
Impacts of global climate change would not stop, but carry on for hundreds and thousands of years and longer for ocean acidification.
Also from the IPCC AR5
A warming above 2°C would be associated with a level of ocean acidification deadly to coral reefs and a large proportion of all marine life.
At 2°C all crops in all regions would be in decline.
Above 2°C many catastrophic irreversible planetary tipping points may be passed.
The IPCC 2007 4th assessment told policy makers that emissions must reverse (go into decline) by 2015 at the latest to avoid a warming above 2.0°C.
The IPCC AR5 makes it clear that many very damaging impacts are to be expected at a global warming of 1.5°C to 2°C.
The AR5 shows that we are absolutely committed to a warming of 1.5C before 2050
The only IPCC AR5 scenario that keeps below a 2°C global mean warming (from 1850) by 2100 and stays under 2°C (by 2400) is called RCP2.6.
All the other scenarios are above 2°C by 2100 and keep increasing after 2100.
In the AR5 best case scenario RCP2.6,. fossil fuel and industrial CO2 emissions plateau immediately to be declining from 2020. By 2040 CO2 emissions have declined by 50% from today.
The EU contribution has been announced which is a 50% decline from today’s emissions by 2030.
If governments start energy transformation in a couple of years, in accordance with IPCC AR5 RCP2.6, this would lead to world emissions declining from 2020 and avoid a warming above 2°C that would otherwise occur within a few of decades.